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US dollar firms on Fed outlook, potential Trump win; pound sinks after inflation data

FOREX-US dollar firms on Fed outlook, potential Trump win; pound sinks after inflation data U.S. dollar hits fresh 10-week high Sterling falls to two-month low Fed rate futures now fully pricing in 25-bp rate cut Recasts, adds new comment, bullets, FX table, updates prices By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss and Alun John NEW YORK/LONDON, Oct 16 (Reuters) - The U.S.
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FX options wrap - Trump trade, ECB risk, revealing sales

BUZZ-FX options wrap - Trump trade, ECB risk, revealing sales Shorter dated expiry implied volatility in most of the major currency pairs remains under pressure and reflects the lack of current FX realised volatility. That's not expected to change much until the U.S. election, where implied volatility is higher and better supported. Overnight expiry implied volatility remains very low, even in EUR related pairings which now include Thursday's ECB policy announcement .
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The more the BoE cuts, the less merry pound may be

BUZZ-COMMENT-The more the BoE cuts, the less merry pound may be Sterling might be in for a far from merry Christmas if the probability of the Bank of England delivering three or more consecutive interest rate cuts, beginning in November, continues to grow. Markets currently see a material chance of the BoE reducing rates in December and February, in addition to the 25 basis point cut to 4.75% expected on Nov.
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FX options show ECB risk to EUR/USD is at long time low

BUZZ-COMMENT-FX options show ECB risk to EUR/USD is at long time low Oct 16 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank is almost unanimously expected to cut rates by 25bps to 3.25% on Thursday. An increase in related FX option premiums shows the market is not complacent about the potential for increased FX volatility, but expects it to be limited. Overnight options expire on the next working day at 10 a.m.
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Pound falls after cooler-than-expected British inflation

Pound falls after cooler-than-expected British inflation Adds analyst comment in paragraph 5, updates prices at 0626 GMT LONDON, Oct 16 (Reuters) - The pound dropped on Wednesday after data showing British inflation slowed more than expected in September, making it easier for the Bank of England to cut interest rates further this year. The pound dropped 0.5% on the dollar to $1.30075, having been flat before the data.
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Pound falls after cooler-than-expected British inflation

Pound falls after cooler-than-expected British inflation LONDON, Oct 16 (Reuters) - The pound dropped on Wednesday after data showing British inflation slowed by more than expected in September, making it easier for the Bank of England to cut interest rates further. The pound dropped 0.4% on the dollar to $1.3019, having been flat before the data.
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FX options wrap - Pricing says FX is still going nowhere fast

BUZZ-FX options wrap - Pricing says FX is still going nowhere fast Another day of FX consolidation and limited volatility which keeps the pressure on FX option implied volatility . EUR/USD tested below 1.0900 but lacked the impetus needed to excite the FX options market. The ECB is widely expected to cut rates by 25 bps on Thursday, so it would take a surprise hold to reignite related FX volatility.
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Sterling stages small rebound; hovers above 1-month low

Sterling stages small rebound; hovers above 1-month low By Samuel Indyk LONDON, Oct 15 (Reuters) - The British pound edged higher against the dollar and the euro on Tuesday after mixed labour market data, which should clear the way for the Bank of England to lower interest rates next month but proceed at a measured pace. British pay grew at its slowest rate in more than two years in the three months to August, according to official data , but the unemployment rate fell to 4% - its lowest reading
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FX options wrap - Nowhere fast, election bid, USD hedge

BUZZ-FX options wrap - Nowhere fast, election bid, USD hedge Shorter term expiry FX option implied volatility remains depressed to highlight a lack of short-term realised volatility expectations, with overnight/next day expiry option premiums hitting their lowest levels since July . Premium/break-even prices taken from overnight expiry implied volatility in EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD, were at/below 25 USD pips on Monday's U.S.
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Sterling dips as investors look to UK jobs, inflation reports this week

Sterling dips as investors look to UK jobs, inflation reports this week Graphic: World FX rates in 2020 http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh Graphic: Trade-weighted sterling since Brexit vote http://tmsnrt.rs/2hwV9Hv By Medha Singh LONDON, Oct 14 (Reuters) - The pound held near a one-month low against the dollar on Monday ahead of wage growth and inflation data this week that could help shape the Bank of England's next move at its policy review meeting next month.
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World shares stuck, oil down as China stimulus plans too vague for investors

GLOBAL MARKETS-World shares stuck, oil down as China stimulus plans too vague for investors China stimulus's announcement fails to inspire investors Q3 earnings, ECB in focus French government bonds shrug off Fitch outlook revision Recasts from London, updates throughout By Dhara Ranasinghe and Alun John LONDON, Oct 14 (Reuters) - Stock markets held below last month's record highs on Monday, while the Chinese yuan and oil prices weakened as China's broad economic stimulus promises made over the
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Asia shares stutter as China's stimulus pledges fail to inspire

GLOBAL MARKETS-Asia shares stutter as China's stimulus pledges fail to inspire Updates at 0500 GMT By Rae Wee SINGAPORE, Oct 14 (Reuters) - Asian stocks swung between gain and loss on Monday as investors struggled to reach a consensus view on China's broad economic stimulus promises made over the weekend which were light on specifics. Minister of Finance Lan Foan at a closely watched news conference on Saturday pledged to "significantly increase" debt, but left investors guessing on the overall
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Asia shares stutter on diverging takes of China's stimulus pledges

GLOBAL MARKETS-Asia shares stutter on diverging takes of China's stimulus pledges Updates at 0140 GMT By Rae Wee SINGAPORE, Oct 14 (Reuters) - Asian stocks swung between gain and loss on Monday as investors struggled to reach a consensus view on China's economic stimulus promises made over the weekend which, though broad, were light on specifics. Minister of Finance Lan Foan at a closely watched news conference on Saturday pledged to "significantly increase" debt, but left investors guessing on
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Asia shares await China markets' response to detail-thin stimulus pledges

GLOBAL MARKETS-Asia shares await China markets' response to detail-thin stimulus pledges By Rae Wee SINGAPORE, Oct 14 (Reuters) - Asian stocks hardly budged in early holiday-thinned trade on Monday, with investors nervous as to how markets in mainland China would react to government economic stimulus promises over the weekend which, though broad, were light on detail.
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Dollar flat against peers as markets digest U.S. economic data

FOREX-Dollar flat against peers as markets digest U.S. economic data Updates headline, first paragraph, adds analyst comment; changes byline, dateline, previous TOKYO/LONDON By Chibuike Oguh, Alun John NEW YORK/LONDON, Oct 11 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar was little changed against major currencies on Friday as markets digested a slew of economic data that supported the Federal Reserve's current monetary policy path, while a rise in British economic growth could not lift the pound from one-month l
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FX options wrap - Balancing current FX with impending risks

BUZZ-FX options wrap - Balancing current FX with impending risks The FX volatility upon which FX options thrive has been lacking and leaves dealers to manage time decay costs whilst retaining protection from impending risks. This scenario is reflected in FX option premium and trade flows. The USD has staged a recovery from its late September lows as the extent of the U.S.
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Sterling pinned near one month low after British GDP data

Sterling pinned near one month low after British GDP data LONDON, Oct 11 (Reuters) - The pound was pinned around a one month low on the dollar on Friday, getting little support from data that showed Britain's economy returned to growth in August. Sterling was last flat on the day on the dollar at $1.3069, GBP=D3 just off the $1.3011 hit Thursday, its lowest since mid Sept.
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Stand out G10 FX option strike expiries next week

BUZZ-COMMENT-Stand out G10 FX option strike expiries next week Oct 11 (Reuters) - The cash hedging of soon-to-expire FX option strikes can bolster nearby support and resistance levels, whilst having a magnetic effect on FX price action, and there are plenty to note on Friday and the week ahead. The biggest nearby EUR/USD strikes on Monday are at 1.0945-50 on 1.5 billion euros, Tuesday at 1.1000 on 3.3 billion euros, Wednesday at 1.0950-55 on 2.7 billion euros and on Thursday between 1.0975-90 on
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FX options wrap - Falling FX volatility precedes a resurgence

BUZZ-FX options wrap - Falling FX volatility precedes a resurgence Price action in FX options suggests traders are anticipating a period of lower FX volatility before a resurgence in early November. Implied volatility for options expiring through the end of October is relatively low and sellers have been dominating the fairly limited trade flows. However, benchmark 1-month expiry options include the U.S.
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Sterling hovers near one-month low ahead of US inflation print

Sterling hovers near one-month low ahead of US inflation print LONDON, Oct 10 (Reuters) - The pound was flat on Thursday, hovering near its lowest level against the dollar in a month, as traders maintained a cautious stance and waited for potentially market-moving U.S. inflation data due later in the day. Sterling GBP=D3 held its ground at $1.3076, up marginally from Wednesday's trough of $1.3057, its lowest since Sept.
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