The more the BoE cuts, the less merry pound may be
Sterling might be in for a far from merry Christmas if the probability of the Bank of England delivering three or more consecutive interest rate cuts, beginning in November, continues to grow.
Markets currently see a material chance of the BoE reducing rates in December and February, in addition to the 25 basis point cut to 4.75% expected on Nov. 7, after a dovish shift in expectations on Wednesday's cooler than expected UK inflation data. 0#BOEWATCH
UK CPI fell by more than expected to 1.7% on the year in September - its first print below the BoE's 2% target level since mid-2021. It was forecast at 1.9%.
Goldman Sachs expects the BoE to reduce rates in sequential 25 bps steps from November, with ING predicting seven consecutive quarter-point cuts to 3.25% by August 2025.
GBP/USD fell to an eight-week low of 1.2984 on the softer than forecast UK inflation data, with GBP/EUR dropping to an intra-week low of 1.1934.
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(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)
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