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FX options wrap - Trump trade, ECB risk, revealing sales

BUZZ-FX options wrap - Trump trade, ECB risk, revealing sales Shorter dated expiry implied volatility in most of the major currency pairs remains under pressure and reflects the lack of current FX realised volatility. That's not expected to change much until the U.S. election, where implied volatility is higher and better supported. Overnight expiry implied volatility remains very low, even in EUR related pairings which now include Thursday's ECB policy announcement .
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FX options show ECB risk to EUR/USD is at long time low

BUZZ-COMMENT-FX options show ECB risk to EUR/USD is at long time low Oct 16 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank is almost unanimously expected to cut rates by 25bps to 3.25% on Thursday. An increase in related FX option premiums shows the market is not complacent about the potential for increased FX volatility, but expects it to be limited. Overnight options expire on the next working day at 10 a.m.
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These FX options are becoming 'the Trump trade'

BUZZ-COMMENT-These FX options are becoming 'the Trump trade' Oct 16 (Reuters) - U.S. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump has regained his poll lead over Democratic rival Kamala Harris with only three weeks to go before the U.S. election and it's fuelling demand for options to hedge the risk of a stronger USD rebound. USD call options give holders the right to buy the USD at levels that are advantageous to the FX spot rate, for an upfront premium.
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Sell EUR/JPY, buy GBP/JPY as rate expectations shift?

BUZZ-COMMENT-Sell EUR/JPY, buy GBP/JPY as rate expectations shift? Oct 16 (Reuters) - Recent market moves and shifting central bank expectations suggest EUR/JPY could be a good sell and GBP/JPY potentially a buy. There is now a growing view that the European Central Bank could be more dovish than the U.S. Federal Reserve and in contrast to the still hawkish-leaning Bank of Japan.
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US recap: EUR/USD on back foot in mixed market

BUZZ-COMMENT-US recap: EUR/USD on back foot in mixed market Oct 15 (Reuters) - The dollar traded mixed Tuesday with the pound gaining ground following a solid U.K. employment report while slumping oil and a weaker yuan weighed on commodity currencies. U.S. Treasury yield curve flattened after the New York Fed's monthly gauge of factory activity unexpectedly fell to negative 11.9 in October from a positive reading a month earlier.
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Looming risks to yen calm vs euro

BUZZ-COMMENT-Looming risks to yen calm vs euro Policymaker comments may soon shake up recently sedated trade in EUR/JPY. The cross has been orbiting 163 since Oct. 4 amid broad dollar gains and stable interest rate differentials. The relative calm has depressed realized volatility and EUR/JPY options that capture outlier moves. Event risks over the next month, however, may see the cross move out of its 155-164 two - month range.
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FX options wrap - Pricing says FX is still going nowhere fast

BUZZ-FX options wrap - Pricing says FX is still going nowhere fast Another day of FX consolidation and limited volatility which keeps the pressure on FX option implied volatility . EUR/USD tested below 1.0900 but lacked the impetus needed to excite the FX options market. The ECB is widely expected to cut rates by 25 bps on Thursday, so it would take a surprise hold to reignite related FX volatility.
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Are options under-pricing US election risk to USD/JPY?

BUZZ-COMMENT-Are options under-pricing US election risk to USD/JPY? Oct 15 (Reuters) - When comparing FX option volatility risk premiums with their fair value measures for expiry dates, which include the U.S. election on November 5, USD/JPY stands out as being potentially under-priced. FX volatility is a key, yet unknown parameter of an FX option premium, so dealers use implied volatility as a stand in.
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US dollar climbs to 10-week peak; euro, China's yuan fall

FOREX-US dollar climbs to 10-week peak; euro, China's yuan fall Euro falls ahead of ECB meeting, rate cut expected China's fiscal stimulus briefing disappoints investors Bitcoin and ether hit two-week highs Adds new comment, FX table, graphic, updates prices By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss and P.J. Huffstutter NEW YORK, Oct 14 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar touched a 1 0 -week high on Monday in thin trading, extending its weeks-long bullish run s parked by data showing a modestly slowing economy that l
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US recap: EUR/USD falls as dollar continues climb

BUZZ-COMMENT-US recap: EUR/USD falls as dollar continues climb Oct 14 (Reuters) - The dollar index rose in holiday-thinned trade on Monday, hitting a two-month high as haven currencies retreated, U.S. shares advanced and investors awaited this week's offering of economic data and U.S. corporate earnings. Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said more rate cuts likely lie ahead as inflation approaches the U.S.
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US dollar hits nine-week high; China yuan, euro down

FOREX-US dollar hits nine-week high; China yuan, euro down Recasts, adds new comment, FX table, updates prices; changes dateline, previous SINGAPORE/LONDON Euro falls ahead of ECB meeting, rate cut expected China's fiscal stimulus briefing disappoints investors Bitcoin and ether hit two-week highs By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss, Medha Singh NEW YORK/LONDON, Oct 14 (Reuters) - The U.S.
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FX options wrap - Nowhere fast, election bid, USD hedge

BUZZ-FX options wrap - Nowhere fast, election bid, USD hedge Shorter term expiry FX option implied volatility remains depressed to highlight a lack of short-term realised volatility expectations, with overnight/next day expiry option premiums hitting their lowest levels since July . Premium/break-even prices taken from overnight expiry implied volatility in EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD, were at/below 25 USD pips on Monday's U.S.
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Dollar hovers near highs as investors parse China's stimulus plans; euro slips

FOREX-Dollar hovers near highs as investors parse China's stimulus plans; euro slips Updates at 1120 GMT Euro falls ahead of ECB meeting, rate cut expected China's fiscal stimulus briefing disappoints investors Bitcoin and ether hit two-week highs By Medha Singh, Vidya Ranganathan SINGAPORE/LONDON, Oct 14 (Reuters) - The dollar hovered near recent highs on Monday as investors digested China's weekend stimulus announcements that some found disappointing, while the euro extended its fall ahead of
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Dollar holds near highs as investors parse China's stimulus plans; euro dips

FOREX-Dollar holds near highs as investors parse China's stimulus plans; euro dips Updates at 0757 GMT By Vidya Ranganathan and Medha Singh SINGAPORE/LONDON, Oct 14 (Reuters) - The dollar hovered near recent highs on Monday as investors digested China's somewhat disappointing weekend stimulus announcements, while the euro extended its fall ahead of a central bank meeting this week.
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Dollar holds gains while investors parse China's stimulus plans

FOREX-Dollar holds gains while investors parse China's stimulus plans Updates prices By Vidya Ranganathan SINGAPORE, Oct 14 (Reuters) - The dollar held onto its gains and even extended some in Asian trading on Monday as a holiday in Japan sapped liquidity, leaving China's somewhat disappointing weekend stimulus announcements the focus of market attention.
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Dollar extends gains while investors parse China's stimulus plans

FOREX-Dollar extends gains while investors parse China's stimulus plans By Vidya Ranganathan SINGAPORE, Oct 14 (Reuters) - The dollar extended its gains in early Monday trades in Asia as a holiday in Japan sapped liquidity, leaving China's somewhat disappointing weekend stimulus announcements the focus of market attention. The euro was down 0.13% at $1.0922 EUR=EBS and the pound nearly 0.2% lower at $1.3043 GBP=D3 .
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US recap: EUR/USD pauses slide as dollar stalls after US data

BUZZ-COMMENT-US recap: EUR/USD pauses slide as dollar stalls after US data Oct 11 (Reuters) - The dollar index eased Friday amid profit-taking after a nine-day advance and lower short-term Treasury yields following a batch of soft U.S. data. U.S. producer prices were unchanged in September on a monthly basis and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for October unexpectedly fell.
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FX options wrap - Balancing current FX with impending risks

BUZZ-FX options wrap - Balancing current FX with impending risks The FX volatility upon which FX options thrive has been lacking and leaves dealers to manage time decay costs whilst retaining protection from impending risks. This scenario is reflected in FX option premium and trade flows. The USD has staged a recovery from its late September lows as the extent of the U.S.
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Are options under-pricing US election risk to USD/JPY?

BUZZ-COMMENT-Are options under-pricing US election risk to USD/JPY? Oct 11 (Reuters) - When comparing FX option volatility risk premiums with their fair value measures for expiry dates, which include the U.S. election on November 5, USD/JPY stands out as being potentially under-priced. FX volatility is a key, yet unknown parameter of an FX option premium, so dealers use implied volatility as a stand in.
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Stand out G10 FX option strike expiries next week

BUZZ-COMMENT-Stand out G10 FX option strike expiries next week Oct 11 (Reuters) - The cash hedging of soon-to-expire FX option strikes can bolster nearby support and resistance levels, whilst having a magnetic effect on FX price action, and there are plenty to note on Friday and the week ahead. The biggest nearby EUR/USD strikes on Monday are at 1.0945-50 on 1.5 billion euros, Tuesday at 1.1000 on 3.3 billion euros, Wednesday at 1.0950-55 on 2.7 billion euros and on Thursday between 1.0975-90 on
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