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US natgas prices slide 2% to 2-week low on Hurricane Milton power outages



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Adds latest prices

By Scott DiSavino

Oct 11 (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures slid about 2% to a two-week low on Friday aspower generators burnedless gas after Hurricane Milton knocked out power to millions of homes and businesses in Florida.

The price decline came despitea decline in output so far this monthand forecasts for the amountof gas flowing to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants to increase onceCove Point in Maryland returns to service, which could happen any day now.

Front-month gas futures NGc1 for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 4.3 cents, or 1.6%, to settle at $2.632 per million British thermal units, their lowest close since Sept. 26.

For the week, the contract was down about 8% after sliding about 2% last week.

Hurricane Milton slammed into the west coast of Florida as a major storm Wednesday night and swept across the central part of the state on Thursday. The storm has now dissipated in the Atlantic Ocean.

There were still around 2.3 million customers without power in Florida from Milton on Friday, down from a high of around 3.4 million on Thursday.

There were also still about 66,000 customers without power in North Carolina and Georgia after Hurricane Helene moved inland after hitting Florida on Sept. 26.

In 2023, power generators in Florida burned a record 3.9 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd)of gas to keep the lights on for the state's roughly 11.5 million power customers, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration and PowerOutage.us.

That means every 1 million customer outages reduces the need to burn around 0.3 bcfd of gas on average.


SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states fell to 101.2 bcfdso far in October, down from 101.8 bcfd in September. That compares with a record 105.5 bcfd in December 2023.

That is because many producers reduced their drilling activities so far this year after average spot monthly prices at the U.S. Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL benchmark in Louisiana fell to a 32-year low in March. Prices have remained relatively low since then.

Meteorologists projected the weather in the Lower 48 states will remain mostly milder than normal through at least Oct. 26. But even though the weather will be mild, it is still turning seasonally cooler with the coming of winter.

With the seasonally cooler weather, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, will rise from 96.2 bcfd this week to 96.8 bcfd next week and 98.2 bcfd in two weeks.

The demand forecasts for this week and next were similar to LSEG's outlook on Thursday.

Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants slid to an average of 12.4 bcfd so far in October, down from 12.7 bcfd in September. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023.

That reduction was due mostly to the planned Sept. 20 shutdown of Berkshire Hathaway Energy's 0.8-bcfd Cove Point LNG export plant in Maryland for around three weeks of annual maintenance.

That Cove Point outage could end soon. The company told customers it was seeking to purchase gas on Oct. 11, but also noted some gas flows would be restricted until further notice due to unplanned maintenance at the Pleasant Valley compressor station in Virginia.

Week ended Oct 11 Forecast

Week ended Oct 4 Actual

Year ago Oct 11

Five-year average

Oct 11


U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):

+68

+82

+93

+89


U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):

3,697

3,629

3,598

3,542


U.S. total storage versus 5-year average

4.4%

5.1%


Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)

Current Day

Prior Day

This Month Last Year

Prior Year Average 2023

Five-Year Average (2018-2022)

Henry Hub NGc1

2.70

2.68

3.15

2.66

3.60

Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1

12.76

12.84

14.55

13.04

14.39

Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1

13.08

13.07

16.30

14.39

14.31

LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days

Two-Week Total Forecast

Current Day

Prior Day

Prior Year

10-Year Norm

30-Year Norm

U.S. GFS HDDs

112

99

107

105

140

U.S. GFS CDDs

50

54

41

58

40

U.S. GFS TDDs

162

153

148

163

180

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts

Prior Week

Current Week

Next Week

This Week Last Year

Five-Year (2019-2023) Average For Month

U.S. Supply (bcfd)

U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production

101.7

101.3

101.4

103.1

96.8

U.S. Imports from Canada

7.6

8.0

7.5

N/A

7.1

U.S. LNG Imports

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Total U.S. Supply

109.3

109.3

109.0

N/A

103.9

U.S. Demand (bcfd)

U.S. Exports to Canada

2.0

1.9

1.9

N/A

2.3

U.S. Exports to Mexico

6.6

6.8

6.7

N/A

5.9

U.S. LNG Exports

12.0

12.4

12.9

13.4

10.0

U.S. Commercial

4.9

5.3

6.6

6.2

6.9

U.S. Residential

4.1

4.8

7.4

6.5

7.3

U.S. Power Plant

36.8

35.8

31.7

30.8

30.9

U.S. Industrial

21.8

22.1

22.5

22.3

22.3

U.S. Plant Fuel

5.0

5.0

5.0

5.0

5.0

U.S. Pipe Distribution

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.0

U.S. Vehicle Fuel

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

Total U.S. Consumption

74.8

75.0

75.3

72.9

74.5

Total U.S. Demand

95.4

96.2

96.8

N/A

92.7

N/A is Not Available












U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam

2025 Current Day % of Normal Forecast

2025 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast

2024

% of Normal Actual

2023 % of Normal Actual

2022

% of Normal Actual

Apr-Sep

93

93

74

83

107

Jan-Jul

88

86

76

77

102

Oct-Sep

89

87

77

76

103

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA

Week ended Oct 11

Week ended Oct 4

2023

2022

2021

Wind

8

8

10

11

10

Solar

6

6

4

3

3

Hydro

5

5

6

6

7

Other

2

2

2

2

2

Petroleum

0

0

0

0

0

Natural Gas

44

45

41

38

37

Coal

17

16

17

21

23

Nuclear

18

18

19

19

20

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)

Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL

2.26

2.43


Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL

1.46

1.75


PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL

4.26

4.30


Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL

1.39

1.61


Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL

2.15

2.25


Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL

1.63

2.10


SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL

2.99

3.08


Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL

0.28

2.25




AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL

1.20

1.29



SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)


Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL

39.50

39.50



PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL

34.25

34.25



Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL

28.00

28.00


Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL

68.60

68.60




Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL

52.00

52.00


SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL

48.75

48.75





Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Elaine Hardcastle and Diane Craft

For gas data on the LSEG terminal type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.

For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the LSEG terminal

For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html

For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG

For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR

For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL

For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/

For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC

For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44

For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS

For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER

To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)

NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651

NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651

ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391

NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B

NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C
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