US dollar continues uptrend as Fed policy provides lift
U.S. rate futures price in nearly 100% chance of 25-bp cut in November
Yen weakness versus dollar eases
Dollar initially falls on news of easing Middle East tension
Adds new comments, graphic, updates prices
By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss
NEW YORK, Oct 15 (Reuters) -The U.S. dollar edged higher against most major currencies on Tuesday, resuming the latest uptrendthat took it to more than two-month highs fueled by expectations the Federal Reserve will proceed with modest interest ratecuts over the next year and a half.
The greenback traded lower for most of the European and U.S. sessions due in part to a decline in risk aversion aftermedia reports saidIsrael was not willing to strike Iranian oil targets, easing fears of a supply disruption in the Middle East. That pushed oil prices lower and reduced inflation expectations, modestly pressuring the dollar.
Analysts, however, said the dollar's recent uptrend still has some ways to go given persistentgeopolitical and election uncertainty.
"We think the trend for the greenback will remain intact as long as the macro data remains above water," said Boris Kovacevic, global macro strategist, at Convera in Vienna, Austria.
"Volatility ... and the U.S. dollar tend to rise in tandem going into the U.S. election, especially with the rise of (former U.S. President) Trump in betting markets and the 50 basis-point (bp) cut being out of the picture for the Fed at least in November. This would be the best case for the dollar in the short term."
U.S. data has shown a resilient economy, while inflation in September rose slightly more than expected, leading traders to trim bets on further large rate cuts from the Fed.
The U.S. central bank kicked off its easing cycle with an aggressive 50-bp move at its last policy meeting in September but market expectations have shifted to a slower pace of cuts, boosting the dollar.
Traders have assigned a nearly 100% chance of a 25 bps cut in November, with just a 0.2%probability of a pause by the Fed, keeping the fed funds rate at the 4.75%-5.0% target range, according to LSEG calculations.
The market has also factored 47 bps of rates easing this year, and another 100 bps of cuts in 2025, much lower than the 200 bps reductions priced in before the September Fed meeting.
In afternoon trading, the dollar index =USD, which measures the U.S. currency against six rivals, was up 0.1% at 103.26, not far from 103.36, the highest level since Aug. 8 touched on Monday. The dollar was boosted in part by comments from Fed Governor Chris Waller, who called for "more caution" on interest rate cuts ahead.
The euro EUR=EBS hit its lowest level since Aug. 8 at $1.0882 ahead of the European Central Bank policy meeting on Thursday, where the central bank looks set to deliver back-to-back rate cuts, a move that seemed unlikely at its last meeting in September. It was last down 0.2% at $1.0887.
The pound GBP=D3 was marginally higherat$1.3068in the wake of British labor market data showing pay grew at its slowest in more than two years in the three months to August. Thatpace that should allow the Bank of England to lower interest rates next month.
Expectations that sticky inflation would keep the BoE on a gradual rate cut path relative to its peers - the Fed and the ECB - had underpinned the pound's outperformance this year. But shifting bets have pushed it lower in recent weeks, with the pound down over 2% against the dollar for the month.
YEN WEAKNESS ABATES
The U.S. currency's rise has pushed the yen back toward 150 per dollar, especially after a dovish shift in rhetoric from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda and surprising opposition to further rate hikes from new Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba.
That has cast doubts as to when Japan's central bank will next tighten policy, with a very slim majority of economists in a Reuters poll expecting BOJ to forgo raising rates again this year.
The dollar fell 0.4%against the yen to 149.25yen JPY=EBS, having risen to 149.98 on Monday, its highest since Aug. 1. So far this month, the dollar has gained 3.8% versus the Japanese currency.
Oil-exporting currencies were weaker after crude oil prices plummeted on reports of Israel unwilling to strike Iranian targets.
Against the Norwegian crown, the dollar rose 0.3% to 10.827NOK=D3, while the U.S. currency was flat against the Canadiandollar CAD=D3 atC$1.3792.
Meanwhile, the Australian dollar AUD=D3 fell 0.4% toUS$0.6701, while the New Zealand dollar NZD=D3 slid 0.3% toUS$ $0.6078.
China's yuan, both onshore and offshore, weakened to a one-month low against the dollar on Tuesday. CNY/
Currency bid prices at 15 October 07:33 p.m. GMT | |||||||
Description | RIC | Last | U.S. Close Previous Session | Pct Change | YTD Pct | High Bid | Low Bid |
Dollar index | =USD | 103.24 | 103.18 | 0.07% | 1.84% | 103.34 | 103.03 |
Euro/Dollar | EUR=EBS | 1.0887 | 1.0909 | -0.2% | -1.37% | $1.0917 | $1.0882 |
Dollar/Yen | JPY=D3 | 149.19 | 149.79 | -0.33% | 5.85% | 149.8 | 148.875 |
Euro/Yen | EURJPY= | 1.0887 | 163.35 | -0.56% | 4.37% | 163.43 | 162.35 |
Dollar/Swiss | CHF=EBS | 0.8625 | 0.8627 | -0.01% | 2.49% | 0.8636 | 0.8608 |
Sterling/Dollar | GBP=D3 | 1.3067 | 1.3061 | 0.08% | 2.72% | $1.3103 | $1.3038 |
Dollar/Canadian | CAD=D3 | 1.3792 | 1.3795 | -0.02% | 4.05% | 1.3839 | 1.3791 |
Aussie/Dollar | AUD=D3 | 0.6701 | 0.6726 | -0.36% | -1.7% | $0.6732 | $0.67 |
Euro/Swiss | EURCHF= | 0.9391 | 0.9408 | -0.18% | 1.13% | 0.941 | 0.9383 |
Euro/Sterling | EURGBP= | 0.8329 | 0.8352 | -0.24% | -3.88% | 0.8356 | 0.8326 |
NZ Dollar/Dollar | NZD=D3 | 0.6079 | 0.6097 | -0.27% | -3.77% | $0.6105 | 0.6074 |
Dollar/Norway | NOK= | 10.8289 | 10.7974 | 0.29% | 6.85% | 10.8596 | 10.7809 |
Euro/Norway | EURNOK= | 11.7904 | 11.7818 | 0.07% | 5.05% | 11.8248 | 11.7563 |
Dollar/Sweden | SEK= | 10.4199 | 10.416 | 0.04% | 3.51% | 10.445 | 10.353 |
Euro/Sweden | EURSEK= | 11.3462 | 11.3636 | -0.15% | 1.97% | 11.3815 | 11.294 |
World FX rates https://tmsnrt.rs/2RBWI5E
US dollar and presidential elections https://tmsnrt.rs/3Ub289U
Reporting by Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss; Additional reporting by Samuel Indyk in London and Ankur Banerjee in Singapore; Editing by Will Dunham, Chizu Nomiyama and Nick Zieminski
免责声明: XM Group仅提供在线交易平台的执行服务和访问权限，并允许个人查看和/或使用网站或网站所提供的内容，但无意进行任何更改或扩展，也不会更改或扩展其服务和访问权限。所有访问和使用权限，将受下列条款与条例约束：(i) 条款与条例；(ii) 风险提示；以及(iii) 完整免责声明。请注意，网站所提供的所有讯息，仅限一般资讯用途。此外，XM所有在线交易平台的内容并不构成，也不能被用于任何未经授权的金融市场交易邀约和/或邀请。金融市场交易对于您的投资资本含有重大风险。
所有在线交易平台所发布的资料，仅适用于教育/资讯类用途，不包含也不应被视为用于金融、投资税或交易相关咨询和建议，或是交易价格纪录，或是任何金融商品或非应邀途径的金融相关优惠的交易邀约或邀请。
本网站上由XM和第三方供应商所提供的所有内容，包括意见、新闻、研究、分析、价格、其他资讯和第三方网站链接，皆保持不变，并作为一般市场评论所提供，而非投资性建议。所有在线交易平台所发布的资料，仅适用于教育/资讯类用途，不包含也不应被视为适用于金融、投资税或交易相关咨询和建议，或是交易价格纪录，或是任何金融商品或非应邀途径的金融相关优惠的交易邀约或邀请。请确保您已阅读并完全理解，XM非独立投资研究提示和风险提示相关资讯，更多详情请点击 这里。
