RBNZ to cut rates by half point to 4.75% on Oct 9
reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl%3A%2F%2Fapps.cp.%2FApps%2Fcb-polls%3FRIC%3DNZINTR%253DECI poll data
reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/econ-polls?RIC=NZGDPAP GDP poll data
reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/econ-polls?RIC=NZINFAP CPI poll data
By Devayani Sathyan
BENGALURU, Oct 4 (Reuters) -New Zealand's central bank will cut its key interest rate by 50 basis points to 4.75% on Wednesday, according to a majority of economists in a Reuters poll who were split on where rates would be at year-end.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) in August cut rates, which had been at a 15-year high for over a year, leaving many analysts surprised but in line with market expectations.
Soon after the August meeting, central bank chief Adrian Orr raised the distinct prospect of two more rate cuts by Christmas as inflation was comfortably nearing its 1-3% target range. Weak economic growth and rising unemployment would support the central bank's decision to ease policy further.
Interest rate futures are pricing in a roughly 97% chance of a 50 basis points cut on Oct. 9 and over 90 basis points of cuts by the end of this year. 0#RBNZWATCH
Around 60% of respondents, 17 of 28, in a Sept. 30-Oct. 3 survey expected the RBNZ to cut its official cash rate NZINTR=ECI by 50 basis points to 4.75% next week. The remaining 11 predicted a 25 basis point cut.
A trim to 5.00% next week was the median forecast in the post-August meeting poll.
"We can see risks around cutting 50, but also risks around cutting 25, and we think they'll have a pretty vigorous discussion about what the right thing to do is. But at the end of the day, when you've got 50 points pretty much fully priced and universally expected, that is the path of least resistance," said Sharon Zollner, chief economist at ANZ.
"In so far as the OCR is still at 5.25% and the Reserve Bank's estimate of neutral is a lot lower than that then they probably think a 50-point cut can be justified in that regard. If the job is done, why not take your foot off the brake?"
All major local banks - ASB, ANZ, BNZ, Kiwibank, and Westpac - saw a 50 basis points cut next week and again in November.
However, economists surveyed were split on where rates would be after November's meeting. While 13 saw 4.25% eight predicted 4.75%. Five expected rates at 4.50% and two at 5.00%.
Median forecasts showed a total 100 basis points of cuts next year, taking rates to 3.50% by end-2025.
"We have had two years of recessions and that is starting to show up in the labour market. So the central bank now has work to do the other way...Inflation is not a problem, but the risk of undershooting and having a hard landing is becoming a greater risk," said Jarrod Kerr, chief economist at Kiwibank.
"Taking it from 5.50% to below 4% would provide that necessary relief for Kiwi businesses and households. I think they need to get moving and get moving quickly. It takes so long for monetary policy to see through."
Economists expected inflation to fall to 2.2% this quarter and average 3.1% this year and 2.1% in 2025.
New Zealand's economy contracted in the second quarter and was predicted to have done so by 0.1% last quarter, indicating a technical recession. But analysts expect it to grow 0.2% this year and 1.9% in 2025.
(Other stories from the October Reuters global economic poll)
Reporting by Devayani Sathyan; Polling by Anant Chandak and Susobhan Sarkar; Editing by Toby Chopra
免责声明: XM Group仅提供在线交易平台的执行服务和访问权限，并允许个人查看和/或使用网站或网站所提供的内容，但无意进行任何更改或扩展，也不会更改或扩展其服务和访问权限。所有访问和使用权限，将受下列条款与条例约束：(i) 条款与条例；(ii) 风险提示；以及(iii) 完整免责声明。请注意，网站所提供的所有讯息，仅限一般资讯用途。此外，XM所有在线交易平台的内容并不构成，也不能被用于任何未经授权的金融市场交易邀约和/或邀请。金融市场交易对于您的投资资本含有重大风险。
所有在线交易平台所发布的资料，仅适用于教育/资讯类用途，不包含也不应被视为用于金融、投资税或交易相关咨询和建议，或是交易价格纪录，或是任何金融商品或非应邀途径的金融相关优惠的交易邀约或邀请。
本网站上由XM和第三方供应商所提供的所有内容，包括意见、新闻、研究、分析、价格、其他资讯和第三方网站链接，皆保持不变，并作为一般市场评论所提供，而非投资性建议。所有在线交易平台所发布的资料，仅适用于教育/资讯类用途，不包含也不应被视为适用于金融、投资税或交易相关咨询和建议，或是交易价格纪录，或是任何金融商品或非应邀途径的金融相关优惠的交易邀约或邀请。请确保您已阅读并完全理解，XM非独立投资研究提示和风险提示相关资讯，更多详情请点击 这里。
