Forint holds steady after rate cut cycle resumes, crown tests one-month low
Updates with Hungary cenbank decision, trader comment
By Anita Komuves
BUDAPEST, Sept 24 (Reuters) -Hungary's forint held stable on Tuesday after the central bank resumed its rate cut cycle following a pause last month, as expected,while the Czech crowneased before another expected Czech rate reduction.
On Tuesday, the National Bank of Hungary (NBH) cut its base rate by another 25 basis points (bps) to 6.50%. The bank had held steady on rates last month following 15 consecutive rate reductions.
The Hungarian currency EURHUF= traded at 394.80 per euro, the same as Monday's closing level and holding stable after the rate cut. It kepttrading in the middle of the range it has bounced around in the second half of the year.
"The entire market expected this rate cut, both inside and outside Hungary, so it had been priced in already and thus did not move the forint," an FX trader in Budapest said.
The forint had firmed the past few weeks to as strong as 392.90, before its retreat starting on Friday.
Investors also eyed a statement with the latest inflation projections and a news conference by the central bank, both scheduled for 1300 GMT.
The Czech crown EURCZK= was testing a one-month low on Tuesday, edging down 0.08% and trading at 25.150 per euro before a central bank meeting on Wednesday, at which markets widely expect another 25-bps interest rate cut.
Some analysts have said the crown might get a lift after the expected rate cut if the central bank sounds hawkish, causing markets to scale back rate cut bets going ahead.
Both banks, which started reducing rates already last year, are convening after the U.S. Federal Reserve began its easing cycle last week with a larger-than-usual rate cut. The European Central Bank has also cut interest rates in recent months.
Elsewhere, the Polish zloty EURPLN= was up 0.15% and trading at 4.2660 versus the euro, at the stronger end of the range where it has been trading since mid-August.
"We expect a calm performance from the złoty. EURPLN will probably remain in the range of 4.27-4.28," Polish state-owned development bank BGK wrote.
Stocks in the region firmed, with Warsaw .WIG20 leading gains as it added 2.01%.
CEE MARKETS | SNAPSHOT | AT 1423 CET | ||||
CURRENCIES | ||||||
Latest | Previous | Daily | Change | |||
trade | close | change | in 2024 | |||
EURCZK= | Czech crown | EURCZK= | 25.1500 | 25.1300 | -0.08% | -1.78% |
EURHUF= | Hungary forint | EURHUF= | 394.8000 | 394.8000 | +0.00% | -2.94% |
EURPLN= | Polish zloty | EURPLN= | 4.2660 | 4.2725 | +0.15% | +1.84% |
EURRON= | Romanian leu | EURRON= | 4.9755 | 4.9750 | -0.01% | -0.02% |
EURRSD= | Serbian dinar | EURRSD= | 117.0500 | 117.0600 | +0.01% | +0.17% |
Note: daily change | calculated from | 1800 CET | ||||
Latest | Previous | Daily | Change | |||
close | change | in 2024 | ||||
.PX | Prague | .PX | 1583.31 | 1580.9800 | +0.15% | +11.97% |
.BUX | Budapest | .BUX | 73369.28 | 73060.07 | +0.42% | +21.03% |
.WIG20 | Warsaw | .WIG20 | 2332.75 | 2286.81 | +2.01% | -0.44% |
.BETI | Bucharest | .BETI | 17683.33 | 17601.71 | +0.46% | +15.04% |
Spread | Daily | |||||
vs Bund | change in | |||||
Czech Republic | spread | |||||
CZ2YT=RR | 2-year | CZ2YT=RR | 3.2350 | 0.0090 | +109bps | +3bps |
CZ5YT=RR | 5-year | CZ5YT=RR | 3.3970 | -0.0080 | +138bps | -1bps |
CZ10YT=RR | 10-year | CZ10YT=RR | 3.7490 | 0.0090 | +156bps | -1bps |
Poland | ||||||
PL2YT=RR | 2-year | PL2YT=RR | 4.6890 | -0.0100 | +255bps | +1bps |
PL5YT=RR | 5-year | PL5YT=RR | 5.0800 | 0.0230 | +307bps | +3bps |
PL10YT=RR | 10-year | PL10YT=RR | 5.4150 | 0.0210 | +323bps | +1bps |
FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS | ||||||
3x6 | 6x9 | 9x12 | 3M interbank | |||
Czech Rep | CZKFRAPRIBOR= | 3.71 | 3.42 | 3.11 | 4.28 | |
Hungary | HUFFRABUBOR= | 6.36 | 6.00 | 5.58 | 6.41 | |
Poland | PLNFRAWIBOR= | 5.77 | 5.39 | 4.74 | 5.85 | |
Note: FRA quotes | are for ask prices | |||||
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Additional reporting by Jason Hovet in Prague and Karol Badohal in Warsaw; Editing by Kim Coghill and Tasim Zahid
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