Czech crown seen rising as other CEE currencies stall
reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/fx-polls?RIC=EURCZK= euro/koruna poll data
reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/fx-polls?RIC=EURPLN= euro/zloty poll data
reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/fx-polls?RIC=EURHUF= euro/forint poll data
reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/fx-polls?RIC=EURRON= euro/leu poll data
reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/fx-polls?RIC=EURRSD= euro/Serbian dinar poll data
By Jason Hovet
PRAGUE, Oct 3 (Reuters) -The Czech crown is the only central European currency set for steady gains against the euro in the coming year, with the Hungarian forint and Polish zloty likely to be stuck near current levels this time in 2025, a Reuters poll showed.
The forint and zloty, respectively the worst and best performers in the region so far in 2024, have space to gain in the next two quarters.
But over the next 12 months they are forecast to end up slightly above or below levels seen at Tuesday's close, according to median forecasts in the poll of analysts.
The crown EURCZK=, on the other hand, should gain more than 2% over Tuesday's close by the end of the third quarter of 2025, to 24.70 to the euro, a level it last reached in June this year.
Central Europe's currencies have been mostly under pressure in the second half of 2024, with Hungarian and Czech interest rates weighing while a sluggish economic recovery and rising global tensions - seen this week with Iran's missile strike on Israel - add to investor concerns.
The crown hit a two-year low in August but has since rebounded 1.3%. The forint is at 1-1/2-year lows at the psychological 400 per euro level which it weakened beyond this week for the first time since March 2023.
In the poll, the median forecast put the forint EURHUF= as strong as 395 to the euro in three months and trading at around 400.2 in 12 months, versus Tuesday's close of 397.95.
The forint has dropped over 3.5% so far in 2024 to lead losses in central Europe. The crown is down over 2%.
The zloty, though, is up 1.2% this year, buoyed by the Polish central bank's long pause on monetary policy moves since two interest rate cuts in September and October last year.
In May, it hit four-year highs beyond 4.25 to the euro, and has bounced in a range around that level since. It closed Tuesday at around 4.29.
The poll saw the zloty EURPLN= unchanged at 4.285 in 12 months while gaining as much as 0.7% to 4.26 in six months.
Romania's leu EURRON= was the only currency seen steadily easing over the next year with high budget deficits a long-running concern. The median poll forecast saw a 1.5% loss to 5.05 to the euro in 12 months' time.
(Other stories from the October Reuters foreign exchange poll)
Reporting by Jason Hovet; Polling by Veronica Khongwir and Sarupya Ganguly; Editing by Mark Potter
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